In 100 Years by Unknown

Author:Unknown
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: business, econometrics, economics, comparative economics
ISBN: 9780262026918
Publisher: The MIT Press
Published: 2013-08-07T16:00:00+00:00

6 American Politics and Global Progress in the Twenty-First Century

John E. Roemer

As an American, I naturally tend to focus on how developments in my country will affect the world during the next century. At this time, I believe that the most important unknown is politics, not economics. In particular, since the defeat of the Republican Party in the 2008 presidential election and the advent of the first black American president, we have seen the Republican Party move sharply to the right, contrary to what one would have expected a conservative party to do after a defeat by a party to its left. The policies advocated by the Republican Party today, if implemented, would be disastrous not only for the majority of Americans but for the rest of the world. Even after the Democratic victory in November 2012, it is uncertain whether the necessary progress can be made internally to change the American trajectory.1 I believe the main global problem that must be addressed is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), with the consequent effects on global temperature and climate.

The U.S. Congress and president have failed to take any initiative on curbing GHG emissions, and I think this is preventing meaningful global progress on controlling climate change. If the world fails to act and curb emissions strongly in the next fifty years, there is a substantial probability of grave consequences with respect to sea level rises, food production, and mass migrations, both within and between countries. I need not rehearse the possible scenarios here. The Republican Party, most of whose prominent members maintain that global warming is either not occurring or, if it is, is not due to man-made GHG emissions, is misleading the citizenry. My own view is that the United States is the key player in the sense that China would agree to curb emissions if the United States were willing to as well.

From an economic point of view, the problem is solvable without major disruptions in living standards (indeed, even economic growth is possible), but significant government intervention, in the form of taxes and subsidies, and redistribution to protect those who would be hurt by sharp increases in (for example) taxes on fossil fuels would be necessary. (More on this below.) Indeed, I believe there are two sources of the Republican denial with respect to climate change: first, the link between the Republican Party and big business, in particular, the petroleum industry, which wants to continue to profit by exploiting fossil fuels, and second, the understanding that dealing properly with climate change would require substantial state involvement in markets, which Republicans are loath to support.

It is so obviously collectively rational for global society to treat the threat of large increases in temperature seriously that the procrastination exhibited in taking the necessary steps is difficult to fathom. One explanation of that procrastination is that it is difficult for many who do not follow the scientific discussion to understand the problem because of the delay in effects of increasing atmospheric carbon concentration.

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